In baseball, the caught stealing percentage (CS%) is a statistic that measures how often a runner attempting to steal a base gets caught in the act. It provides insight into a player’s base-stealing ability and the effectiveness of a team’s defense against the running game. This article will explain what CS% is, how it’s calculated, why it matters, and dive deeper into interpreting and applying the stat. With a solid understanding of CS%, you’ll be able to evaluate baserunners and defenses better.

The Definition and Calculation of CS%

Caught stealing percentage is calculated by dividing the number of times a runner is caught stealing by the total number of steal attempts. For example, if a runner attempts to steal 20 bases over the course of a season but gets caught 10 times, their CS% would be 10/20 = 50%.

The formula is:

CS% = (Caught Stealing) / (Stolen Base Attempts)

The resulting percentage represents the rate at which a runner gets caught when trying to steal. A lower CS% is better for baserunners, while a higher percentage favors the defense. The league average CS% tends to be around 27-30% in a given MLB season.

Why CS% Matters in Player and Team Evaluation

CS% is useful for analyzing several aspects of baseball performance:

Baserunning ability – It gives a sense of a player’s speed, instincts, and technique on the basepaths. Players with a low CS% successfully steal bases at a high rate.
Defensive strength – A team’s CS% indicates how good its catchers and pitchers are at controlling the running game. Higher CS% means the defense excels at catching runners.
Run-scoring environment – More stolen bases potentially lead to more runs scored. Teams with a low CS% create more run-scoring chances if they attempt a lot of steals.
Aggressiveness – CS% shows how aggressive or conservative teams/players are about attempting steals. Higher attempt volumes tend to mean more caught stealings.

Along with other baserunning metrics, CS% is worth examining when evaluating overall baseball skills. It can reveal hidden strengths, weaknesses, and trends over a player’s career.

Interpreting Caught Stealing Percentage

Several factors provide context when interpreting what a CS% means:

Baseline CS% Benchmarks

Elite – Under 20%
Great – 20-24%
Above Average – 25-29%
Around League Average – 30-31%
Below Average – Over 35%

Of course, these tiers aren’t definitive across all eras of baseball. But they give a general idea of good, average, and poor CS%s.

Attempts and Sample Size

A player’s number of total steal attempts impacts CS%. One caught steal in five attempts (20% CS%) looks very different than 20 caught steals out of 100 attempts (also 20% CS%). More data leads to a more accurate picture of a runner’s ability.

Smaller attempt volumes make CS% less reliable in single seasons. For example, a player caught twice in seven tries has a 29% CS% — but with more attempts, that rate would likely change.

Stolen Base Approach and Strategy

Certain players rarely even try stealing, favoring a more conservative approach. Others with green lights will attempt many steals, accepting more caught stealings.

Coaching strategy also influences CS rates. Aggressive teams run more often, while risk-averse teams stay put.

Individual Skills and Role

Fast players capable of getting good jumps off the bases will boast lower CS%s. Slower players who steal infrequently only when they’re sure they’ll make it will have higher rates.

Pinch runners come in specifically to steal, so their CS% only reflects limited steal attempts in ideal circumstances.

Age and Experience

Younger players still honing instincts and technique tend to get caught more often. CS%s frequently improve with experience reading pitchers and perfecting jumps.

Late career decline in speed can increase veterans’ CS% compared to their peak seasons.

Why Some Players Have High CS%

Many factors can contribute to an individual player having a poor CS%:

They Are Slow Runners

Some players simply lack the pure footspeed necessary to steal bases consistently. Even getting decent jumps won’t matter if they cannot outrun the ball to the next base. Slow runners get caught more frequently.

Poor Jumping Technique

Runners who are slow to react or get inefficient breaks off the base when the pitcher delivers end up with higher CS%s. Good jumping technique can help compensate for average speed.

Overly Aggressive Baserunning

Attempting many ill-advised steals in suboptimal situations leads to more caught stealings. Impatient or reckless players may try to steal at the wrong times.

Inexperience Reading Pitchers

It takes time to learn a pitcher’s pickoff moves, timing, and tendencies delivering home. Young players often misread cues and get caught stealing more.

Declining Speed With Age

As players lose a step later in their careers, their CS% rises compared to their peak seasons. Stolen bases require speed and explosiveness that fade with age.

Why Some Teams Have High CS%

There are also several reasons a pitcher, catcher, and team as a whole can be good at controlling opponent’s running games:

Strong-Armed Catchers

Catchers who can snap crisp, accurate throws down to second base shut down the running game. Pop times under 2.0 seconds generally lead to higher CS%.

Quick Deliveries to the Plate

Pitchers who deliver the ball home quickly don’t allow runners to get good jumps. This cuts down stolen base attempts altogether.

Pitchers Varying Looks and Timing

By mixing up their delivery times and keeping runners off balance, pitchers can more easily catch them leaning.

Pitchers With Good Pickoff Moves

Some pitchers are very effective at picking runners off first base. This discours runners from attempting steals.

Shifting and Positioning

Teams shifting their infielders or making pre-pitch adjustments tailored to specific hitters’ tendencies gain an edge defending steals.

Strong Infield Arms

Quick infielders make it harder for runners to take extra bases even if they reach safely. Their presence discourages attempts.

Significance of League-Average CS%

The league-average CS% in a given MLB season can reveal broader trends in the game:

Higher league-average CS% – Signals suppressed stolen base attempts and more control over running game by defenses.
Lower league-average CS% – Suggests more stolen base attempts and aggressive baserunning benefiting offenses.
CS% decreasing over time – Likely faster baserunners, more steals emphasized, and poorer defense/catching.
CS% increasing over time – Slower/conservative baserunning, fewer attempts, and strong defense/catching.

For example, the AL CS% was 31% in 2019 before dropping to 27% in 2021. This could reflect faster players, more steals, and worsened catching. The evolution of CS% reflects larger stylistic and talent trends.

Caught Stealing Percentage Leaders and Trailers

Examining league leaders and trailers in caught stealing percentage can also reveal elite baserunning and defensive performances:

2022 CS% Leaders

Martin Maldonado (HOU): 58% CS% – Threw out 33 of 57 steal attempts; elite catcher arm.
Jake Rogers (DET): 57% – Strong arm, quick pop times to second base.
Cal Raleigh (SEA): 52% – Emerging as top thrower, nabbing 27 runners.

2022 CS% Trailers

Trea Turner (LAD): 9% – Successful on 32 of 35 attempts, elite wheels.
Jon Berti (MIA): 12% – Excellent baserunner with top instincts and speed.
Cedric Mullins (BAL): 14% – Consistent success; stole 34 bases.

The best and worst CS%s highlight the value of speed, instincts, and defensive skills in controlling the run game.

Changes in Caught Stealing Over Time

Caught stealing rates have shifted notably over MLB history:

Pre-1920 – CS% over 40% across MLB. Running game heavily suppressed.
1920s-1950s – CS% dropped under 35%. Stolen bases increased.
1960s/1970s – CS% jumped back over 40% range. Steals again decreased.
1980s-2000s – CS% steadily declined to under 30%. Steroid era and artificial turf boosted steals.
Post-2010 – CS% around 28-30% range. Remains a lower/stolen base-friendly era.

Strategies, player skill sets, ballparks, and eras of baseball all influence CS% trends over decades. But stolen bases have been favored since the 1980s.

Best Ways to Improve CS%

For runners looking to improve their CS% and run game impact, there are several proven methods:

Get Faster Overall

Pure speed is a huge advantage on the bases. Improving acceleration and top end speed through training can lower CS%.

Refine Baserunning Technique

Perfecting weight transfer, first steps, and proper jumping form shaves precious tenths of seconds off steal attempts.

Study Pitchers Closely

Learn pitchers’ patterns, moves, and timing to identify chances to steal successfully. Minimize misreads.

Be Selective When Attempting

Choosing ideal situations raises the probability of a successful steal. Don’t run recklessly.

Enhance Sliding Technique

A proper slide into the base improves odds of avoiding the tag when challenged.

For pitchers and catchers, controlling the running game involves:

Maintaining Strong Catcher Arm Strength and Accuracy

Consistently quick, on-target throws to bases deter runners.

Varying Looks and Timing to the Plate

Keeping runners guessing wrong-foots them on jumps.

Perfecting Pickoff Moves

Flashing to first convincingly will make runners hug the bag.

Positioning Infielders Effectively

Shading middle infielders based on hitter tendencies optimizes CS chances.

Caught Stealing Data Application

Here are some examples of how caught stealing percentage gets used by teams:

Player Evaluation

Assess potential trade targets or free agents’ baserunning skills using CS% and overall stolen base efficiency.
Compare rookie/prospect base stealing ability to peers based on minor league CS%.
Identify aging players with declining speed/baserunning impact using increase in CS%.

Opponent Scouting

Find opponent weaknesses controlling the run game using team and individual CS%s.
Exploit slow deliveries or weak catchers’ arms based on poor CS%s allowed.
Avoid running on elite defenders with consistently high CS% history.

Strategy and Decision Making

Determine ideal situations to give runners the green light based on game state, score, pitcher, and catcher.
Position corner infielders further back and optimize shifts accounting for batter’s stolen base probability.
Substitute in faster baserunners during late innings in tight games to improve run-scoring chances.

Conclusion

Caught stealing percentage is a telling metric that captures the cat-and-mouse game between baserunners and defenses in baseball. It provides valuable insight into speed, technique, arms, approach, and historical trends in the game’s running game. When interpreted carefully within proper context, CS% can reveal hidden edges at the individual and team level. Both front offices and fans can appreciate CS% to understand player value and strategy in a clearer light. With the ability to leverage caught stealing data and analysis, you’ll watch baseball with an enhanced perspective.

Frequently Asked Questions About CS%

What is a good CS% for an elite base stealer?

For an elite base stealer, maintaining a CS% under 20% is considered excellent. The very best baserunners in a given MLB season typically post CS% between 15-20%.

How many caught stealings lead managers to give a red light?

Once a player reaches around a 33-35% CS rate in a season, managers typically stop giving them the green light and require they pick their spots more carefully going forward.

Why was CS% higher historically in MLB?

In eras before the 1980s, CS% was higher for several reasons: slower baserunners on average, fewer attempts to steal, more catcher emphasis on arm strength, and turf-less infields that were slower to run on.

Do most CS occur picking off a runner or throwing them out during a steal attempt?

Roughly 70% of caught stealings occur on a traditional steal attempt of second or third base. The other 30% come from pickoffs back to first base rather than advancing.

How much does CS% fluctuate season to season for an individual player?

Unless there is a major injury, age decline, or strategic shift, most players maintain a relatively consistent CS% within 3-4 percentage points annually in their prime years.

Which MLB team has the highest CS% historically?

The 1991 Los Angeles Dodgers own the record for best single-season CS% at 64%. Catcher Mike Scioscia threw out 46 of 72 attempted base stealers that year.

Can high CS% be a bad thing for a team?

If a team posts a strong CS% but doesn’t attempt many steals themselves, it can indicate passivity on the bases rather than defensive strength. Some aggression is ideal.

Who are the career leaders in lowest CS% (min 200 attempts)?

Two of the career CS% leaders are Tim Raines Sr. (23%) and Carlos Beltran (24%). Both combined excellent speed with top-tier instincts and reading pitchers.

How much game strategy revolves around CS% analysis today?

With advanced analytics, front offices factor in CS metrics more than ever when evaluating trades, free agents, and optimal strategy. But “old school” feel still affects in-game decision making.